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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time: 2014-04-02T15:12Z

Model Inputs:
2014-04-02T13:55:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-50.0, Lat.=19.0, Speed=1604.0, HalfAngle=68.0, Time21.5=2014-04-02T15:51Z

Model Outputs:
Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2014-04-04T09:21Z (+- 7 hours) [PE: -24.3 hr]
Duration of disturbance (hr) = 35.3 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.1
Possible Kp index:
(kp)90=5
(kp)135=7
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
Mars with estimated shock arrival time 2014-04-05T20:34Z
Spitzer with estimated shock arrival time 2014-04-04T03:21Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_155100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_155100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_155100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_155100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_155100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_155100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_155100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140402_155100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif

Note :


Submitted on 2014-04-02T22:11Z by Anna Chulaki

A Notification with ID 20140402-AL-004 was sent on 2014-04-02T22:27Z
A Notification with ID 20140403-AL-001 was sent on 2014-04-03T03:21Z


Comments by users:

"comment by Karin: Ensemble modelling still uses SOHO images only (with 35 deg of POS angle, estimated from the flare source region), but later, backfilled images are used (compared to images for first alert)." --Commented by Karin Muglach on 2014-04-03T03:26:09 (version 1)

"This simulation was performed based on analysis with plane of sky approximation only, using a plane of sky angle of 35 degrees with SOHO. Images on STB are not available save of one very early image, and this is a full halo in STA." --Commented by Anna Chulaki on 2014-04-02T22:13:51 (version 1)
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